Both supply and demand in the lead market are weak, with lead prices continuing to fluctuate at highs [SMM Morning Lead Meeting Summary]

Futures Market:

Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,992.5/mt. During the Asian session, it first declined and then rose. Entering the European session, it continued its upward trend, reaching a high of $2,010.5/mt, and eventually closed at $2,007/mt, up $12/mt or 0.6%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2507 contract opened at 16,925 yuan/mt. After briefly consolidating around the daily moving average in the early session, it dipped to 16,870 yuan/mt, then fluctuated upward to reach a high of 16,950 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 16,905 yuan/mt, up 35 yuan/mt or 0.21%.

Macro Aspects: According to Xinhua News Agency, the Secretariat of Iran's Supreme National Security Council issued a statement on the 23rd, stating that in response to the US's aggressive actions against Iran's nuclear facilities, Iran launched missile strikes on the US's Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar on the same day. Trump: Israel and Iran have reached a full agreement and will achieve a comprehensive ceasefire. On June 23rd (Monday), Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum stated that Mexico would not issue new mining concessions, and the Mexican Minister of Environment and Natural Resources was working to address pollution issues in mines.

》Click to view historical SMM lead spot quotes

Spot Fundamentals:

In the Shanghai market, Chihong and Honglu lead were quoted at premiums of -50 to 0 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2507 contract. In the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets, Jijin and JCC lead were quoted at premiums of -20 to 0 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2507 contract. SHFE lead maintained high-level consolidation, and suppliers shipped goods at market prices. With the outflow of delivery cargoes, quotations increased compared to last Friday, with most being quoted at discounts. The price difference between cargoes self-picked up from production sites of primary lead smelters in the north and south expanded. Quotations in South China were mostly at discounts (against SMM 1# lead), while those in North China were relatively firm. Quotations from secondary lead smelters were limited, with some secondary refined lead quoted at premiums of -50 to 0 yuan/mt ex-factory against SMM 1# lead. Downstream enterprises adopted a wait-and-see attitude and made limited purchases, with general inquiry enthusiasm and sluggish spot order market transactions.

In terms of inventory, according to SMM, as of June 23rd, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five regions tracked by SMM reached 55,700 mt, a decrease of approximately 700 mt from June 16th and a decrease of over 300 mt from June 19th.

Today's Lead Price Forecast:

Lead prices have recently fluctuated upward. As the month-end approaches, some downstream enterprises are beginning to wait for new long-term contracts in the next month, limiting their spot order purchases. In terms of refined lead supply, secondary lead enterprises are generally in a state of production reduction or suspension. In late June, primary lead enterprises in North China, Southwest China, and South China underwent regular maintenance as scheduled, mostly involving delivery brands, leading to a tightening of lead ingot supply. Despite a few large downstream enterprises potentially reducing spot order purchases due to year-end account closing, social warehouses continue to show a slight decline. In the short term, both supply and demand in the lead market are weak, and lead prices are expected to continue fluctuating at highs.

》Click to view SMM Metal Industry Chain Database